AYR BUBBLES

The final day of Royal Ascot may overshadow a noteworthy sponsor. UNITE: the trades union is associated with a few races at Ayr. Who would have thought that would happen during speeches of raging rhetoric about capitalist villainy? UNITE has been described in a recent audit as having “a pervasive fraud environment.” It is currently under investigation by the Serious Fraud Office for a project that cost three times its original tender. Surely if they are going to sponsor it would be apposite for them to put their name to the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, at the same time proving that old adage: “All men are equal on and under the turf!"

The results from the first day of Royal Ascot were tremendously encouraging for those dedicated to the sport. The first winner was by Massaat, a horse given a stud opportunity rarely bestowed on a classic placed horse. He won for a syndicate of enthusiasts who refused lucrative offers.  It is heartening to see their passion rewarded. The King Charles III Stakes went to an owner breeder who operates on a frugal scale by modern standards and the star act, though owned by a powerhouse, was the result of the Donworths’ decades of dedication to nurturing a family for the racecourse. Another long standing British owner breeder saw their silks run a good third in The Coventry; whose winner was an expensive yearling, but produced by a small breeder who used a proven sire for a mare in her middle age.

A popular refrain from successful purchasers at breeze-up sales is that times are not everything and they “take into account a number of criteria,’ or “they tick all the boxes.”

It seems that regardless of how well a horse breezes, their sire is still a compelling factor. Dams of indescribable mediocrity appear to be little to the detriment of a sire’s appeal. During the recent round of two years olds sales, Mehmas had sixteen out of thirty four sold achieve a six figure sum; while Havana Grey had eighteen of thirty four make at least those sums. The fact that both stallions have a large number of runners to their account suggests that a lifetime stakes winners to foals percentage of just under five percent is reasonably reliable. In a business where non horseman love to interfere with metrics and algorithms, the contrast between these two sets of statistics suggests very little judgement is being exercised. Furthermore, to date neither stallion has sired a two years old winner at Royal Ascot. Havana Grey’s own sire: Havana Gold registered his second Windsor Castle winner yesterday with the scopiest horse in the field. When he died he was standing at a fraction of the fee of his son.

The commitment of most breeders to the racecourse test is easily appraised by the following commonplace scenario: a first crop stallion can attract a six figure book ate opening fee, but rarely attracts more than forty percent of that book size in his third year, when his services are available at fifty percent of his initial cost. That suggests at least fifty percent of the breeders who used him in his first season have no faith in his ability to succeed whatsoever, because if they thought that he represented value at £10K, many must surely use him at £5K if they thought the first product was a real prospect.

Blue Point, who raced until he was five was represented by two winning four years olds on day two and the arguably unlucky Rosallion in the top test for older milers on Tuesday. Four seasons training has clearly not damaged his capacity to excel as a stallion, nor did it prevent him siring fifty one individual two years old winners in his first crop.